Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
