Just 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while Unai Emery admonished him for missing a through-ball. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were an indicator or the reason for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. After the in-form star curled home his second to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery discarded his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their opening six matches, find themselves only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.
According to Opta, in only two games have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a club which has just won a ten-match winning streak, they appear curiously susceptible – but right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping their star man to save the day with two clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened in London, and again when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, bent right inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents had more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
